A new study by Luis A. Rodriguez (NYU) and Christopher Redding (University of Florida), based on more than a decade of New York City data, finds that higher rates of teacher turnover are associated with more student disciplinary infractions. These include office referrals and suspensions. The effect is small but consistent, especially visible for Black students and other historically marginalized groups. This highlights a critical need to examine teacher turnover and student discipline: understanding the link between correlation and causation in schools. On the surface, this appears to be yet another piece of evidence that teacher turnover harms students in more ways than one.

The Key Findings:

• When teachers stay, students are less likely to be disciplined. A 13.3% decrease in teachers within a school who left at the end of the school year is correlated with a 5.7% reduction in students receiving an ODR, and a 7.2% reduction in students receiving a suspension.
• Similarly, a 4.5% decrease in teachers who left mid-year was correlated with a 1.9% reduction in students receiving an ODR and a 2.4% reduction in students receiving a suspension.
• Overall, Black students and other students of extremely underrepresented ethnoracial backgrounds were the only students more likely to receive an ODR or suspension with increased turnover.
• As teachers with more years of experience departed mid-year, students’ probability of disciplinary actions increased. The likelihood that a student received an ODR or suspension increased by roughly 20-30% for each year of experience the departing teachers had, on average.

Correlation Is Not Causation

But here’s the catch: association is not the same as causation.

When researchers say turnover is associated with more discipline, it doesn’t mean that teachers leaving directly cause students to misbehave more or schools to suspend them more often. It might. But it could also be that both turnover and discipline are symptoms of deeper underlying problems. These may include difficult working conditions, weak leadership, or schools already under stress. In fact, the same pressures that cause teachers to leave could also lead schools to rely more on exclusionary discipline.

Why the Results Aren’t So Surprising

This is why the results, while robust, shouldn’t surprise us too much. We already know that high-turnover schools are often those serving disadvantaged communities, with more challenging teaching conditions and less overall stability. It’s hardly surprising that those environments also result in more suspensions. The correlation is real. However, the causal arrows can point in multiple directions at once.

What the Study Adds

Still, the study does add something valuable. It highlights that turnover isn’t just about test scores or teacher effectiveness. It can destabilise the school climate, disrupt relationships, and weaken trust between teachers, students, and administrators. Whether it is the driver or a symptom, turnover and discipline are clearly intertwined.

Abstract of the study:

Purpose: Racial disparities in schools’ use of exclusionary discipline remain a persistent concern, particularly for Black students. Research examining the interplay of school factors on their influence on the use of exclusionary disciplinary punishments has overlooked the role that staffing instability, particularly in the form of teacher turnover, has on school discipline outcomes. To better understand the influence that teacher staffing instability has on school discipline, this study estimates the relationship between teacher turnover and student disciplinary infractions. By introducing student discipline as an outcome in the teacher turnover literature, the study further develops the mechanisms through which teacher turnover negatively affects students. Research Methods/Approach: By drawing on 11 years of panel data from New York City Public Schools, this study employs regression methods to estimate the relationship between school-level rates of teacher turnover and school discipline patterns, distinguishing between turnover occurring within a school year and at the end of a school year. Findings: Findings show significant associations between higher teacher turnover and an increased likelihood of students receiving office discipline referrals and suspensions, particularly for Black students and other non-Asian, non-Hispanic students of color. Our analysis also reveals that as the experience levels of teachers leaving midyear increase, the likelihood of student referrals and suspensions increases. Implications: Study findings have implications for understanding the ways in which teacher turnover interplays with schools’ capacity to address student behavioral issues, aligning with prior research on the far-reaching impact of teacher turnover on various aspects of students’ educational experiences.